This is just a short update.
As discussed in previous report BTC did hit the mentioned $8,400 minor and $9,500 major resistance levels relatively shortly after, temporarily topping out at $9,481. This should lead to a much needed cooldown. After all BTC is up a staggering 160% within just 48 days.
A continued push through this level would add to the tension in the market, forcing bulls to go parabolic, something which is not necessarily wished at this time as it would make the market more unstable, thereby increasing the risk of a violent breakdown if the momentum cannot be sustained. Generally speaking, a consolidation period would be healthy for the longterm trend to be built.
A more detailed chart below shows why a drive through the $9,500 resistance barrier would increase the potential of turbulence. With two major trendlines just above current local top, a break of this level would invite new buyers into the market, but they would enter quite high in the trend which increases the risk of them getting swept out immediately after they entered their positions, which could lead to turbulence in high altitude.
What would be healthy for the market would be a consolidation period, perhaps retesting of lower levels such as EMA 100/200 around $7,900 - $7,500ish, or even the lower support zone of $7,000 - $6,600, before attempting another break of the $9,500 resistance and eventually the critical $10,500 High of mid-February 2020. Although there is literally no guarantee that we will see lower levels from here it would be appreciated by market participants favoring a stable but slower trend over spiking turbulence. A break above $10,500 would indicate not only severe buying pressure, but most likely lead to crazy FOMO buys.
With halving being away less than two weeks the market is in critical condition. ALTS continue to suffer during this sudden BTC breakout, with the dominance retesting the trendline from below, as discussed in previous report, with just single altcoins outperforming BTC at this time, such as SC.
Unfortunately I will not be here for the halving period as I am having an internet gap due to me moving, so this will be the last report for the next two/three weeks. However after long consideration I made the decision that I will fully engage in this space for another season, after my internet gap has ended. Preparations are in progress, so expect a lot of activity after my return as I seek to be of service in the best way I can.
If you have suggestions on how I can do that more effectively, let me know at firstname.lastname@example.org.
One of the reasons why I do not fully trust this BTC rally yet is that in the past months the correlation to traditional markets have been significant. I do not believe that Legacy Markets are done with their selloffs, and that there is more downside coming in the neartime future, so watching how BTC react to these movements will be very indicative.
Wishing you a happy halving, read you in a couple of weeks.
May the supply shock be with you,